← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 63% | 63% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.58 | fair |
| Stoke win | 16% | 15% | 6.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 39' | 🟨 | Simon Mignolet · Liverpool |
| 56' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 63' | 🟨 | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Liverpool |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1673.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1525.01 | 1738.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.08 | 13.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| league points | 13.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.28 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 71.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |