← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 38% | 59% | 2.60 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| West Ham win | 32% | 20% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 21% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · West Ham |
| 28' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ashley Williams · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1537.62 | 1493.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.79 | -44.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 28.19 |
| state index | -0.86 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 292.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |