← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 44% | 54% | 2.21 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| Burnley win | 25% | 17% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
| 79' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1885.00 | 1885.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1529.70 | 1535.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.84 | 22.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| league points | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 27.63 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |