← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 40% | 51% | 2.47 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.10 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 29% | 24% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 56' | ⚽ | Samuel Field · West Brom |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ciaran Clark · Newcastle |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Jonny Evans · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 27.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1685.41 | 1709.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.81 | -43.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.93 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 275.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |