← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Watford win | 19% | 26% | 5.25 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 24' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 32' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 84' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 211.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1536.60 | 1798.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.69 | -8.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 2.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 238.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |