← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 54% | 67% | 1.81 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.72 | fair |
| Everton win | 20% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 52' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Steven Davis · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 178.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1533.98 | 1553.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.84 | -33.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 301.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |