← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 78% | 85% | 1.26 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.60 | fair |
| West Brom win | 7% | 4% | 13.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 26' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · West Brom |
| 58' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kieran Gibbs · West Brom |
| 74' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ben Foster · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1243.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1986.24 | 1677.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.05 | -25.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 30.26 |
| state index | 1.42 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 164.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |