← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 38% | 21% | 2.60 | fair |
| Swansea win | 33% | 40% | 3.01 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 39% | 3.30 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Swansea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Swansea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jordon Ibe · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Bony · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 328.00 | 1881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1482.17 | 1529.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.73 | 34.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.54 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |