← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 50% | 64% | 1.95 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.63 | fair |
| Stoke win | 23% | 19% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Stoke |
| 84' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mamadou Sakho · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 85.00 | 1669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.87 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1459.59 | 1535.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.92 | -4.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.79 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 227.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |