← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 43% | 3.19 | value: +36% |
| Stoke win | 29% | 17% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Stoke |
| 42' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kurt Zouma · Stoke |
| 60' | ⚽ | José Izquierdo · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1085.00 | 1664.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1530.77 | 1533.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.10 | 2.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.10 | 27.47 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 276.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |