← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 42% | 56% | 2.32 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 21% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Will Hughes · Watford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 29' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · West Ham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 202.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1504.51 | 1505.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.91 | -24.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 27.95 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 31.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |