← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 63% | 66% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.36 | fair |
| West Brom win | 14% | 14% | 6.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 19' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 23' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 50' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 62' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 17.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1491.85 | 1816.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.43 | -13.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.78 |
| league points | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 30.19 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.72 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 166.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |