← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 44% | 56% | 2.24 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 30% | 18% | 3.25 | fair |
| Everton win | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Leighton Baines · Everton |
| 32' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 35' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 36' | 🟨 | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sakho · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 26 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 78.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1458.04 | 1572.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.15 | -35.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |