← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 54% | 70% | 1.81 | value: +27% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 16% | 3.66 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 19% | 14% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 31' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 35' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟥 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marc Pugh · Bournemouth |
| 70' | ⚽ | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Collin Quaner · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1874.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1513.77 | 1514.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.31 | -2.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 5.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| travel km | — | 324.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |