← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 43% | 59% | 2.27 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
| Watford win | 27% | 20% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Watford |
| 64' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 67' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Leighton Baines · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 4.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1565.60 | 1511.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.15 | 13.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| league points | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.92 | 28.43 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 263.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |