← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 36% | 54% | 2.72 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.99 | fair |
| Brighton win | 31% | 15% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
| 29' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 307.00 | 1069.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1504.34 | 1519.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.85 | 27.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 28.16 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 281.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |