← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.63 | value: +51% |
| Bournemouth win | 20% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Andrew Surman · Bournemouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Florian Lejeune · Newcastle |
| 77' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 613.00 | 1860.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1515.35 | 1501.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.97 | 2.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 27.63 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 471.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |