← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 76% | 82% | 1.29 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.40 | fair |
| West Brom win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 15' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 1062.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.79 |
| elo | 1503.64 | 1823.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.79 | 34.27 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | 2.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 71.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 15.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.66 | 2.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 9.20 |
| squad age | 29.42 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.62 | 2.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 109.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |