← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 48% | 51% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.57 | fair |
| Stoke win | 24% | 26% | 4.07 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Darren Fletcher · Stoke |
| 57' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Stoke |
| 76' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Watford |
| 85' | 🟨 | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 87' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 180.00 | 1641.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1523.07 | 1522.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.83 | -26.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.76 | 28.90 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |