← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 62% | 55% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
| Bournemouth win | 16% | 17% | 6.20 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 59' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simon Francis · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1853.00 | 484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1505.72 | 1804.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.64 | -21.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |