← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 82% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | 8.30 | value: +34% |
| Swansea win | 7% | 3% | 15.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Swansea |
| 51' | ⚽ | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 58' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7698.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1939.60 | 1697.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.67 | -13.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.94 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 26.98 |
| state index | 1.75 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 264.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |