← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 54% | 51% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.88 | fair |
| Everton win | 21% | 31% | 4.70 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Everton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 40' | ⚽ | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 68' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 68' | 🟥 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 86' | 🟨 | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 30 |
| 3 | On target | 14 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 21.00 | 7692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1770.24 | 1926.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.52 | 2.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.46 | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |