← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 36% | 25% | 2.71 | fair |
| Swansea win | 34% | 40% | 2.89 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.27 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Federico Fernández · Leicester |
| 49' | ⚽ | Shinji Okazaki · Leicester |
| 56' | ⚽ | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 293.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1517.49 | 1566.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.69 | -16.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.80 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 28.02 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 219.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |