← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 68% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 15% | 11.50 | value: +76% |
| Burnley win | 4% | 17% | 24.00 | value: +309% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 29' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 73' | ⚽ | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 75' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 477.00 | 1846.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1819.38 | 1513.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.30 | 27.35 |
| eye test v1 | 2.38 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.40 | -11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.76 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 27.52 |
| state index | 2.24 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.27 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 34.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |