← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 49% | 58% | 2.00 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| West Brom win | 22% | 14% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 47' | 🟨 | Boaz Myhill · West Brom |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 63' | ⚽ | Nacer Chadli · West Brom |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 80' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 15.00 | 1050.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1570.15 | 1507.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.00 | -23.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 29.58 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 56.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |