← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 47% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 24% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 25' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Huddersfield |
| 42' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zanka · Huddersfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 48' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · Swansea |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rajiv Van La Parra · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 286.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1504.90 | 1508.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.71 | -19.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 63.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 267.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |