← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 66% | 66% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.62 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 13% | 14% | 7.65 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | César Azpilicueta · Crystal Palace |
| 18' | ⚽ | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Scott Dann · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 43.00 | 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1449.68 | 1817.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.56 | 3.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| league points | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 26.47 |
| state index | -1.27 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |