← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 53% | 60% | 1.84 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Swansea win | 20% | 18% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Renato Sanches · Swansea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Leon Britton · Swansea |
| 55' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diafra Sakho · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diafra Sakho · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 852.00 | 272.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1529.42 | 1512.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.86 | -9.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 29.59 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 273.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |