← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
| Stoke win | 33% | 38% | 2.95 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1613.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1531.18 | 1556.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.27 | -8.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.98 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |