← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 82% | 66% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 23% | 7.80 | value: +83% |
| Crystal Palace win | 6% | 11% | 17.00 | value: +89% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Juan Mata · Man United |
| 35' | ⚽ | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 86' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 517.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 5.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1803.94 | 1452.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.14 | -40.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 26.69 |
| state index | 1.59 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |