← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 73% | 53% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 41% | 5.56 | value: +129% ⚠ |
| West Brom win | 9% | 5% | 10.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 44' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 49' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 56' | 🟨 | Grzegorz Krychowiak · West Brom |
| 67' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7665.00 | 1029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.56 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1736.85 | 1514.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.73 | 2.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.58 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 29.87 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 165.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |