← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 64% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +4% |
| Stoke win | 15% | 18% | 6.65 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 30' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 57' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 77' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 82' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1606.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1539.32 | 1822.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.08 | 1.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.35 |
| state index | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 215.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |