← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 29% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · West Ham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ben Foster · West Brom |
| 83' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 1020.00 | 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1515.43 | 1532.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.62 | -8.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 29.61 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.73 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 173.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |