← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 81% | 86% | 1.21 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 12% | 11% | 7.95 | fair |
| Swansea win | 7% | 4% | 14.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · Swansea |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Swansea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Toby Alderweireld · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wayne Routledge · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1173.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1804.84 | 1517.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.08 | 6.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.61 | -1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.97 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 26.43 |
| state index | 1.41 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 267.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |