← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 37% | 31% | 2.66 | fair |
| Stoke win | 32% | 33% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 37% | 3.15 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 77' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 84' | 🟨 | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 1000.00 | 1579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1531.13 | 1542.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.96 | 12.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.60 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.81 | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.05 | -1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 55.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |