← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 46% | 53% | 2.12 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| Swansea win | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · Swansea |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 268.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.26 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1490.24 | 1513.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.82 | 30.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 267.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |