← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 73% | 67% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +8% |
| Swansea win | 8% | 13% | 11.55 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Eric Bailly · Man United |
| 73' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 82' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 84' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 230.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1522.69 | 1780.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.24 | 20.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.46 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |