← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 36% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 38% | 3.01 | value: +16% |
| West Brom win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 71' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 83' | 🟥 | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1783.00 | 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1728.70 | 1713.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.20 | -6.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 34.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 28.17 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 143.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |