← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 47% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Watford win | 26% | 20% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Chalobah · Watford |
| 73' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Watford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1783.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1521.13 | 1468.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.59 | -18.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 28.81 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 142.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |