← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 63% | 66% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.25 | fair |
| Swansea win | 14% | 14% | 6.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 72.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1568.85 | 1519.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.84 | 60.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 195.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |