← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 74% | 84% | 1.33 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 18% | 9% | 5.40 | fair |
| Burnley win | 8% | 7% | 12.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 14' | 🟥 | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 16' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 24' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 39' | ⚽ | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 69' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Scott Arfield · Burnley |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 81' | 🟥 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 88' | ⚽ | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 407.00 | 1776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.43 |
| elo | 2010.27 | 1710.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.19 | -13.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | -1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.60 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.79 | 27.52 |
| state index | 2.44 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |