← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 84% | 54% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 28% | 9.70 | value: +170% ⚠ |
| Watford win | 5% | 18% | 18.00 | value: +225% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 41' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 58' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 20.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1471.56 | 1758.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.43 | 8.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 1.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 13.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 29.47 | 29.04 |
| state index | -0.83 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |