← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 60% | 54% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.37 | value: +16% |
| Stoke win | 18% | 19% | 5.53 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 60' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 63' | 🟨 | Glenn Whelan · Stoke |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 354.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1582.23 | 1519.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.18 | -18.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| league points | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 28.76 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |