← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 42% | 49% | 2.35 | value: +16% |
| Crystal Palace win | 29% | 24% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Josh Harrop · Man United |
| 19' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 48' | 🟨 | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Michael Carrick · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 385.00 |
| 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1749.35 | 1519.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.47 | -2.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| league points | 66.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |