← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 85% | 79% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 13% | 10.50 | value: +40% |
| Middlesbrough win | 5% | 7% | 19.09 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 51' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rudy Gestede · Middlesbrough |
| 56' | ⚽ | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days |
| 59.00 |
| 1297.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1724.49 | 1409.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.76 | -5.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 73.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 28.40 |
| state index | 1.01 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 171.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |