← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 75% | 70% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.48 | fair |
| Hull win | 10% | 15% | 9.74 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 13' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 69' | ⚽ | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Toby Alderweireld · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 14 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days |
| 140.00 |
| 1055.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1437.11 | 1798.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.33 | 20.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| league points | 34.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 28.87 | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 239.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |