← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 42% | 41% | 2.31 | fair |
| West Ham win | 30% | 30% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | James Collins · West Ham |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sofiane Feghouli · West Ham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 72' | ⚽ | André Ayew · West Ham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days |
| 1693.00 |
| 720.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1480.47 | 1541.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.32 | 3.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.82 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |