← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 41% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
| Man United win | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Phil Jones · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 350.00 | 381.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1579.08 | 1752.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.80 | -32.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 45.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 26.73 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 290.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |