← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 84% | 77% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 17% | 9.25 | value: +53% |
| West Brom win | 5% | 7% | 19.35 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nacer Chadli · West Brom |
| 52' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 57' | ⚽ | Yaya Touré · Man City |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 87' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 319.00 | 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1753.69 | 1524.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.59 | -31.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.28 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| league points | 72.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.26 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 29.74 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 109.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |