← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 88% | 81% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 14% | 12.00 | value: +66% |
| Sunderland win | 4% | 5% | 23.50 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 56' | 🟨 | John O'Shea · Sunderland |
| 72' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lee Cattermole · Sunderland |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 36 | Shots | 6 |
| 13 | On target | 2 |
| 17 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7533.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1735.46 | 1415.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.49 | -11.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| league points | 69.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 28.32 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 383.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |